Motivation Given the following reviews in Amazon, which seller is more likely to be a good seller? Seller Number of Reviews % of 5-star Reviews A 5 99% B 100 95% C 1000 90% This exploration was originally motivated by a practical question from my manager: how should we evaluate the
Countless mental models exist for dissecting a business, but theory is cheap. Their real power emerges only when they are forged in the fires of your own experience. The frameworks I unpack below are the ones I turn to again and again. They are designed for the moment you’re
Have you ever wondered why some people—or even yourself—can't seem to change their minds, no matter how much evidence is presented? This stubborn resistance to new information is a fundamental challenge to rational thinking. I recently came across a fascinating article, "Trapped Priors As A
Motivation When managing a team, there are two common approaches to alter individual behavior: encouragement and punishment. For example, if an employee is not performing well, the manager may either encourage or reward them when they show improvement, or punish them when they fail to meet expectations. Conversely, if an
AI
This past weekend, I participated in Hackathon@Sea 2025, an internal event hosted by my company. Unsurprisingly, the theme was the "AI Agent," a topic surrounded by immense hype and speculation. The experience provided a clear snapshot of the current landscape of AI development, crystallizing my thoughts on
Every day, we’re faced with a firehose of information. Algorithmic feeds on social media and news platforms promise to show us what’s important, but it often feels like they’re optimizing for outrage, distraction, or someone else's agenda. The result is a sense of informational whiplash—
I tend to feel unconfident in my opinions. Partly, it's because I might look bad if my views are wrong. Another reason is that most of the time, the people in the room share similar views to mine. I feel I have little to add. What makes me
AI
Lilian Weng's recent article, "Why We Think", provides an excellent overview of the current state-of-the-art in AI reasoning. Intriguingly, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the methods employed to enable AI to "think" closely mirror human cognitive processes. These parallels are summarized in the table below. Table
AI
While forecasting how AI will impact my career in Consumer Lending Credit Risk Management (Article Link), I explored the timeline forecast methodology used in AI 2027. Prerequisites Time Horizon The concept of time horizon, proposed by the Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) team, states that the "50%-task-completion
AI
Recently, I've been exploring the theory of computation. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence—essentially a vast collection of algorithms and computational instructions designed to process inputs and generate outputs—I find myself increasingly curious about the fundamental capabilities and limitations of computation itself. Concepts such as
Background Recently, I have been exploring AI 2027 a detailed month-by-month forecast of artificial intelligence advancements through 2027. This resource offers a comprehensive framework outlining how AI is expected to evolve over the next three years. Inspired by this approach, I aim to conduct a similar thought experiment focused specifically
In the offline cellphone-loan business, we have observed that default risk increases with the premium features of the device used during loan application. For example, borrowers applying with phones that have larger storage capacities tend to show higher default rates—counter to the intuitive expectation that “better” devices signal lower